Update Your 2027 Tax and Cash Forecast

The proposed 2027 Dutch tax package would reduce the starter deduction to €10 before its planned abolition in 2028. The self-employed deduction is scheduled to fall to €900 in 2027. Proposed changes also affect company cars and qualifying energy investments. These changes can affect tax, payroll costs and available cash.

Why this matters

Profit, tax and cash are different figures. Your bank balance may include money for VAT, payroll, suppliers or income tax. Lower deductions can raise taxable income while sales and margin stay the same. Some 2027 measures remain proposals. Others are already scheduled. A forecast using old deductions can overstate what the owner can draw. For company cars, the vehicle, contract and first availability date affect the expected cost.

Example

A sole trader prepares a 2027 forecast using the current €2,123 starter deduction. Sales, costs and commercial profit do not change. Under the proposal, the deduction falls to €10. The expected tax bill rises. Cash set aside for private drawings may be needed for tax. If the provisional assessment and household budget still use the old deduction, the owner has conflicting figures for the same year. Use one forecast for profit, tax, drawings, open invoices and committed payments.

XTROVERSO tips

• Separate rules from proposals. Use three columns: current law, scheduled changes and 2027 proposals. Add a review date and name the person who updates the forecast.
• Use one profit forecast. Use the same profit figure for expected tax, provisional assessments, owner drawings and household planning. Record the deductions and tax credits used.
• Calculate available cash. Start with the bank balance. Subtract VAT, payroll, tax, debt, supplier invoices and planned investments. List overdue customer invoices separately.
• Check every company-car file. Record the vehicle type, first private-use date, catalogue value, lease end date and cost bearer. The monthly lease invoice is not the full cost.
• Review contracts and investments. Check whether payroll or mobility costs can be passed on in customer prices. Confirm eligibility before using the proposed 45.5% energy-investment deduction in an investment case.

The data, sourcing, and analysis behind this article were conducted by Paolo Maria Pavan. AI was not used to identify sources, build the factual basis, or produce the analytical judgment contained here. AI was used only as a drafting aid. The final English text was personally reviewed, edited, and approved by Paolo Maria Pavan before publication.

References

• NOAB bezorgd over structurele lastenverzwaring voor ondernemers
• Rijksoverheid — Status and composition of the 2027 tax package
• Rijksoverheid — Self-employed deduction and starter deduction
• Rijksoverheid — Proposed reduction and abolition of the starter deduction
• Adviescollege Toetsing Regeldruk — Consequences for affected starters
• Rijksoverheid — Company-car exposure and youngtimer transition
• Rijksoverheid — Fossil company-car employer levy
• CBS — Payroll cost pressure and consumer-price inflation