Let me begin with a story.

In the Dutch summer of 2022, a friend of mine, a precision-driven restaurant owner in Amsterdam, told me something that struck harder than any macroeconomic report:

"Paolo, I don't know if I raised my prices or lost my margin. But I know I’m more tired, and my clients are more silent."

That sentence captures the real cost of inflation. Not the textbook kind. The lived kind.

This July, CBS reports Dutch inflation at 2.9% (rapid estimate). That’s down from 3.1% in June, and certainly less dramatic than the 10.3% tsunami we saw in July 2022. And yet, the number doesn’t reassure me. Not because I doubt CBS, on the contrary. But because we, as entrepreneurs, must read these numbers like doctors read a pulse: not only to count the beats, but to understand what the heart is doing.

Let’s break this pulse down, together.

1. The Surface: A Dip to 2.9%, So What?

Inflation slowed slightly in July. Not crashed. Not normalized. Just... decelerated.

To the untrained eye, that looks good. To the trained entrepreneur, it raises three questions:

• Is the slow-down due to real stabilization or summer seasonality?
• Which product groups are truly calming down?
• Where is the tension hiding?

According to CBS’s quick estimate:

• Food, drinks & tobacco: Still heating up at 4.1%, down only slightly from 4.6% in June.
• Services: Sitting at 4.0%, down from 4.4%, but still stubbornly high.
• Energy (incl. motor fuels): Mild at 1.0%,  but we’ve seen how quickly this dragon wakes.
• Industrial goods: Rising to 1.4%, doubling from last month.

Now consider this: July prices were also 1.3% higher than June. That’s not “annual inflation,” but month-on-month pressure. And that pressure is real for your cash flow.

2. The Structure: Inflation Is Never One Animal

The average entrepreneur hears “2.9% inflation” and thinks: manageable.

But “average” is a myth. If you’re in logistics, fuel costs might dominate your headaches. If you’re a consultant, service inflation quietly eats your margins. If you’re a restaurant, food prices are your battlefield.

Inflation is not one number. It’s a portfolio of forces:

• Core inflation (excluding energy and food) still breathes volatility.
• Imported inflation (due to currency shifts or supply chains) is invisible in this snapshot.
• Wage inflation, although not directly in the CPI, is reshaping service pricing.
• Behavioral inflation, the psychology of “pricing for safety”, still governs many small businesses.

3. The Timeline: We’ve Been Here Before… But Not Quite

Let’s zoom out:

The drop from 10.3% to 2.9% in just three years seems like healing. But it’s more like a fever returning to mild, not a clean bill of health.

Entrepreneurs who adjusted pricing aggressively in 2022-2023 are now being squeezed by clients expecting deflationary correction. But fixed costs rarely roll back with the CPI.

In other words: your margin’s future is not just in price, but in timing, negotiation, and forecasting discipline.

4. The Deception: Quick Estimates vs. Lived Experience

CBS’s quick estimate (CPI: 2.9%, HICP: 2.5%) is exactly that: quick. Based on partial data, subject to revision. The final figures arrive August 12.

But even when corrected, inflation indexes never fully reflect entrepreneurial reality.

• Housing costs (not in HICP) still carry tremendous pressure, especially for those who rent commercial space.
• Freelancers and one-person businesses often feel shifts in service inflation before large firms.
• And many of us carry the memory, not just the number, of what it felt like when inflation crossed 10%. That memory shapes behavior.

Inflation may be falling, but uncertainty remains stubborn.

5. The Moral: Know Your Personal Inflation Curve

As entrepreneurs, we must build our own CPI. I call it CPI-E: the Consumer Pressure Index - Entrepreneurial.

Ask yourself:

• What product groups hit my margins hardest?
• How have my input costs evolved this quarter?
• How often am I adjusting pricing, and on what basis?
• What is my pricing strategy: proactive, reactive, or frozen out of fear?

The average inflation rate is 2.9%. But your actual inflation vulnerability might be 7%. Or 1%. Or invisible, until it isn’t.

Inflation is not evil. But misreading it is.

Inflation is like fire. It can warm or destroy. Your job is not to control it, but to design a business that dances with it wisely:

• Update pricing not by fear, but by scenario logic.
• Forecast cash flow with short-term CPI trends in mind.
• Build reserves with the agility to absorb shocks.
• And above all, talk to your clients. Silence is not savings.

The CBS number is not just for economists. It's a signal, for entrepreneurs who dare to listen beyond the headline.

Because inflation isn’t just a number. It’s the pulse of your business.

And you, my fellow entrepreneur, are its heart.