Not All Growth Is Equal, And Not All Decline Is A Crisis

When the Dutch retail sector reports a 3.3% increase in turnover for June 2025 compared to the same month in 2024, many instinctively raise a glass. Cheers to growth, cheers to resilience.

But hold that glass a moment.

As entrepreneurs, as stewards of systems, we don’t toast to percentages. We interrogate them. Because numbers, stripped of context, are like empty signposts in a fog. They tell you a direction, but not whether it’s the way forward, or the long way around.

Let’s step inside that 3.3%, together.

The Myth of Momentum: How June’s Growth Masks the Ghost of June 2024

Before June 2025 became a “success,” June 2024 had already written its story. A 0.6% contraction, to be precise. That baseline matters. If you rise after a stumble, you’re not leaping—you’re regaining footing.

So when CBS tells us that turnover grew by 3.3%, but sales volume only by 1.8%, it means more euros changed hands, but not necessarily more goods. We’re likely seeing the familiar duet of price inflation and cautious optimism, not a rush of consumer confidence.

And yet… that’s not bad news.

It’s just different news than the headline suggests.

Sector by Sector: The Moral Behind the Margins

Let's stop lumping everything into “retail” as if supermarkets and sofa sellers live on the same planet. They don't.

Food & Beverage Stores: +3.6% Turnover, but -0.4% in Volume

Supermarkets pulled in 3.7% more money. Specialty stores did well too (+2.7%). But here’s the twist: we sold less in kilos, liters, and units.

Translation? Prices carried the sector. Not demand.

You don’t need a PhD to understand what that means: your costs at the dinner table rose, even if your appetite didn’t.

Non-Food: +3.1% Turnover, +2.9% Volume

This is where it gets spicy.

From DIY and drugstores to shoes and sofas, most categories saw real growth in volume, people actually bought more. DIY in particular stands out as a consistent performer, showing signs of cultural resilience: we still want to build, fix, and improve.

But not all shared in the spoils.

Consumer Electronics: -11.6% Turnover

That’s not a hiccup. That’s a signal. The tech replacement cycle is slowing down. When electronics nosedive, it tells us people aren’t upgrading, they’re stretching the life of what they already own. That’s frugality disguised as loyalty.

Online: The Invisible Storefront That’s Eating the Street

A nearly 7% increase in online sales isn’t just a statistic, it’s a redistribution of attention.

But what’s fascinating is where the growth is strongest:

• Pure online players: +10.3%
• Multichannel brick-and-clicks: only +2.3%

Why? Because digital-native stores don’t just sell. They anticipate, recommend, deliver, and re-target. In contrast, many traditional stores still treat their online presence like a second cousin at a family reunion, necessary, but awkward.

Four Truths Beneath the Surface

Here’s what June 2025 tells us if we’re listening with the right ears:

1. Inflation Still Plays the Lead Role
   Many sectors “grew” because euros are inflated, not because shelves are emptying faster.
2. Consumers Are Strategic, Not Spontaneous
   Electronics dropped while drugstores and DIY rose. This isn’t mood—it’s calculation. Households are re-allocating, not retracting.
3. Digital Wins When It's Native
   A website is not a strategy. Digital strategy without behavioral insight is just a brochure with a shopping cart.
4. We Are Living in an Age of Tempered Growth
   A 3.3% increase after a -0.6% dip is not a rebound. It’s a re-balancing. Don’t mistake that for exuberance. But don’t dismiss it either.

For Entrepreneurs: A Question, Not a Conclusion

What is your client really doing when they buy from you? Are they upgrading, coping, avoiding, deferring, or committing?

That’s the real turnover.

It’s not found in CBS charts, but in conversations, checkout patterns, and the reasons behind the receipts.

And if you're still asking, “Should I expand now? Should I pivot?”, remember: the market’s not a wall. It’s a mirror. And it’s not shouting “yes” or “no.”

It’s whispering, “Understand me better.”  

Only then should you move.