Exports Up 0.5%. Should We Celebrate?

May 2025. The Dutch export machine, once an iron heartbeat of Europe, managed a whisper of growth: just +0.5% in volume (corrected for working days) compared to May 2024. Modest? Yes. Meaningless? Not at all. In fact, this subtle uptick reveals more than it conceals.

You see, data like this is often interpreted like a speedometer, faster, slower, better, worse. But exports aren’t just about movement; they are about direction, composition, and most importantly, resilience. And to understand what this 0.5% really means, we need to zoom out, not just in time, but in intent.

Imports Fall: A Hidden Signal of Friction

Let’s flip the coin: imports dropped by 0.7% year-over-year. At first glance, it looks like a budget-conscious consumer nation tightening its belt. But dig deeper and you’ll see a more complex signal, strategic friction in the global supply chain.

Imports fell primarily in minerals, food & luxury goods, machinery, and electrical equipment. Not random. These are inputs and high-value consumption signals. When imports like these decline, they whisper a warning: either demand is cooling, or businesses are waiting, not building.

This isn’t just about fewer containers at Rotterdam. It’s about less confidence in what’s coming next.

Machinery and Chemicals: The Unlikely Heroes

So why the export uptick? Mostly due to chemicals and machinery. Not tulips. Not beer. Hard, strategic goods.

This matters.

These sectors often signal industrial engagement and infrastructure development abroad. They don’t rise on whim, they rise when foreign markets are building, upgrading, or investing. So while the total export growth is thin, its composition is muscular.

And in times of uncertainty, I’d rather see growth in engines and compounds than in handbags and cheese.

From Boom to Bruise: The 3-Year Context

Let’s not be naive. We are emerging from a brutal 18-month decline in exports. From June 2023 to January 2024, the Netherlands faced a relentless fall, eleven straight months in the red, some deeply so (October 2023: -8.3%).

We only saw a flicker of recovery in early 2025, with March posting a respectable +4.8%. May’s 0.5%, then, is less a victory lap than a pause for breath. It’s the moment in a race when you check your pulse, not your speed.

The Export Radar: A Sky Full of Clouds

CBS's Export Radar for July confirms it: skies remain cloudy. Producer confidence in Germany and the eurozone is still negative. German industrial production rebounded, but let’s not confuse that with systemic health. One swallow doesn’t make a summer.

What we’re witnessing is a fragile standoff between micro recovery and macro caution. Businesses are dipping toes, not diving in.

Why This Matters for Entrepreneurs

If you're an entrepreneur, especially in the Dutch or broader European space, here's what this really means:

• The floor is stabilizing, but the ceiling is still uncertain.
• Machinery and chemicals are a proxy for future-oriented demand, if you’re in these sectors, double down on agility and service.
• Import slowdown means you must audit your suppliers: Are you sourcing from fragile markets? Are your logistics assumptions still valid?
• Don’t trust sentiment indicators alone, watch behavior. German pessimism might coexist with selective investment.

Don’t Look at the Numbers, Listen to Them

We’re in a phase where marginal figures carry major meaning. +0.5% isn’t a celebration, it’s a clue. It says: “I’m breathing, but I’m not running.”

For those of us who lead, advise, or govern, this is the time to build clarity, not just strategy. Don’t forecast based on emotion. Read the signals embedded in trade data. Because while optimism is optional, preparation is mandatory.

And as always, trust is built not when things go well, but when we know how to interpret when they don’t.