A Modest Number with a Loud Signal

When CBS tells us that Dutch households spent 1.1% more in May 2025 than in May 2024, most executives raise an eyebrow, then move on. Too small to celebrate, too green to ignore. But if you know how to listen, not just to data, but to behavior, you’ll hear something deeper. This isn’t about consumer confidence. It’s about household readiness. It’s about the return of planning.

After months (even years) of post-pandemic caution, inflated pricing, and macro-stress from energy to ECB rate tightropes, a 1.1% increase is not just a statistical bump. It’s a civilian pulse. A heartbeat. A behavioral micro-signal that tells us: people are stepping out, not wildly, but intentionally.

Why It Matters (Even If You’re Not in Retail)

The data is volume-based, corrected for price swings and calendar irregularities. So this is real consumption, not inflation camouflage. It’s also well-distributed:

• +1.8% on services: People are investing in time again, restaurant dinners, public transport, a visit to the hairdresser. When citizens spend on experience over possession, it signals emotional bandwidth. Confidence. A desire to re-engage.
• +0.7% on durable goods: Primarily in transport. Not vanity. Utility. That smells like mobility preparation, a deeper bet on one’s near-future stability.
• -0.3% on food and luxuries: Fascinating. Not because it’s negative, but because it reflects prioritization. Households are trimming hedonic excess while funding structural needs.
• -0.2% on other goods: Think fuels and personal care. Marginal drop. Could reflect either energy-saving habits, or a post-winter balance.

This is not a party. This is a restructuring of the household ledger, quiet, rational, grounded.

The Behavior Behind the Chart

Entrepreneurs, pay attention: when consumption rises after long stagnation, it’s often not because people have “more money.” It’s because they have more certainty. They allow themselves to act.

In May 2023, the same index barely moved: +0.1%. By July, it was negative. The months that followed were erratic, up, down, indecisive. Fast forward to early 2025, and we now see a return of consistency. From January to May 2025, consumption steadily ticked up, modestly but reliably. This is not a spike. This is a trend being born.

And June? CBS’s Radar already told us the conditions were even more favorable. So the question isn’t “What’s the next percentage point?” It’s: “How do I prepare my business for the quiet return of household intent?”

Risk Leaders: Read Between the Margins

To my fellow GRC practitioners: this is the kind of signal that never appears in audit trails but shows up in fraud curves, tax declarations, and HR volatility. Why?

Because when people start spending again, slowly, sensibly, it redefines exposure. For small businesses, it means customers may now tolerate modest price increases, but will demand more service quality. For larger firms, it means demand planning must become less reactive, more interpretive.

Also, a behavioral rebound can reawaken dormant liabilities, subscription models, prepayments, deferred tax invoices. Know where your client sits in that risk chain.

The 1.1% That Says: “We’re Ready to Try Again”

Let’s stop asking if the economy is “back.” Economies don’t come back. They evolve. Households, meanwhile, speak softly, but they speak. And in May 2025, they told us: “We’re no longer frozen. We’re cautiously adjusting. Give us reasons to trust, and we’ll lean in.”

To those building for the future, design your models for this tempo. Steady, not euphoric. Rational, not reckless. Because if we respect the small signals, we won’t be blindsided by the big shifts.

Clarity is not a gift. It's a discipline. And in GRC, it's the only compass that counts.