Let me be clear: the most dangerous phrase in today’s financial vocabulary is “We’ve decided not to proceed due to political uncertainty.”
I’ve heard it twice in the last quarter—once during a refinancing negotiation, once during a management buy-out. Two entirely different contexts. One common denominator: a late-stage withdrawal by the bank, after months of due diligence, commitment letters, and strategy execution already underway.
In both cases, the excuse was the same.
“The global situation is too volatile.”
That’s not a risk analysis. That’s a euphemism for abdication.
Political Chaos Is Not a Justification—It’s an Alibi
Banks don’t fear uncertainty. They monetize it. What they fear is being called out when they rewrite the rules mid-game. Political instability has now become the go-to alibi for reducing capital exposure—leaving entrepreneurs to fill the gap from their own pocket, or worse, from informal networks with predatory terms.
In one case, a promised €1.5M was revised down to €1.2M—just weeks before closing.
“Find the rest elsewhere,” the banker said.
But where, exactly?
From friends. Suppliers. Customers. Private lenders. The same people who will demand double-digit returns and accept zero liability when things collapse. And remember: they all come after the bank in the creditor line. Always.
This isn’t financing. It’s a game of chicken disguised as due diligence.
Behind Every SME Is a Human Being Holding the Risk
We must retire the delusion that SMEs are risk-free instruments of economic growth. They are real people. Real families. Real retirement plans. When a bank retracts a signed term sheet, it doesn’t just disrupt a transaction. It delays a pension, destabilizes a marriage, or derails ten years of sweat equity.
In one case, the entrepreneur now faces the absurd situation of selling his own building to an investment fund—just to rent it back and keep the deal alive. This isn’t entrepreneurship. It’s controlled demolition.
We Don’t Have a Market Problem. We Have a Trust Collapse.
The issue isn’t interest rates or inflation.
It’s inconsistency.
What I hear from the financial front lines is chilling:
“At least before, politicians were unpredictable within a frame. Now, it’s chaos dressed up as leadership.”
One week a new tax. The next, a new reversal. In the U.S., every speech is a contradiction. In the Netherlands, no one can say who’s driving the bus. And banks? They don’t wait for clarity—they retreat at the first sign of noise.
Uncertainty is no longer a variable. It’s the default setting.
My Message to Policymakers
Clarity isn’t optional. It’s infrastructure.
Entrepreneurs don’t need rescue. They need reference points.
Give them:
- Consistent tax rules
- Predictable pension instruments
- Clear regulatory narratives—not headlines
The absence of vision is not neutrality. It’s negligence.
My Message to Entrepreneurs
You are not imagining this. You are not alone.
And you are not crazy.
If your financing collapses three weeks before execution, don’t internalize it as failure. It’s not incompetence. It’s a system suffering from its own short-termism.
Document everything.
Assume nothing.
Demand guarantees in writing.
And prepare buffers—not just capital buffers, but psychological ones.
At Xtroverso, we don’t fix this mess. We decode it.
Because clarity is the first form of protection—and truth is the only real capital left standing when the system flinches.
Co-Founder of Xtroverso | Head of Global GRC
Paolo Maria Pavan is the structural mind behind Xtroverso, blending compliance acumen with entrepreneurial foresight. He observes markets not as a trader, but as a reader of patterns—tracking behaviors, risks, and distortions to guide ethical transformation. His work challenges conventions and reframes governance as a force for clarity, trust, and evolution.