The Cold Number, the Warm Truth

In June 2025, Dutch existing home prices rose by 9.3% compared to June 2024. That’s not subtle. Month-over-month (May to June), the increase was 0.9%. If you’re just tracking upward lines, these are signs of a market that’s not only recovered from its 2023 slump, but is now running, quietly, persistently, towards a new peak.

And here’s the kicker:

We’re already 12.7% above the last record peak of July 2022.

Let that sink in. We dipped, we doubted, and now we’re back up, with extra acceleration. But what does this upward motion actually carry inside? Confidence? Speculation? Desperation?

Let’s open that black box.

From Collapse to Confidence, Or Just Habit?

In the first half of 2023, house prices in the Netherlands fell hard. By June 2023, we had a -5.7% annual drop. For some, it felt like sanity returning. For others, it was panic.

But starting mid-2023, the curve quietly bent upward again. Prices began climbing before sentiment caught up. That’s always a sign to pause and ask:

Are we buying because we believe, or because we fear being left behind?

Behavioral truth matters more than economic narrative. Markets don’t always rise because of strength. Sometimes, they rise because of collective anxiety dressed up as confidence.

The Average Transaction Price Tells Another Story

In June 2025, the average transaction price of an existing home hit €474,234.

But let me be clear: this number is raw. It doesn’t correct for quality or type of home. It tells us what buyers paid, not what the homes were intrinsically worth.

That’s why professionals (myself included) look to the price index, not just the average euro amount. The index smooths out noise, size, location, upgrades and reveals the underlying market motion. And that motion, as of June 2025, is not subtle.

Volume Is Back and That’s Not Neutral

Here’s the hidden gem:

18,883 homes changed hands in June alone, up nearly 29% from June 2024. In the first half of 2025, over 108,000 homes were sold, a rise of 18% year-on-year.

That’s volume with a capital V.

It means confidence has returned, or at least activity has. But again, we must ask, what kind?

• Is this first-time buyers rushing in?
• Is it families upgrading because they can, or because they must?
• Is it investors chasing yield in a low-interest environment?

Volume tells us that people are moving. The question is: toward what?

The Why Behind the Rise

Let’s move past the charts and into cause. Why this acceleration?

• Interest rates have stabilized. The ECB has cooled its hikes, giving banks room to offer more digestible mortgage rates again.
• Chronic housing shortage. The Netherlands continues to face a real supply problem, especially in urban and suburban areas. Demand isn’t a wave; it’s a tide.
• Behavioral recoil. After a year of hesitation, many buyers are no longer waiting for a correction that already happened.
• Inflation psychology. When everything costs more, real estate feels like a defensive move, even if it’s a big one.

But there’s a subtler layer too:

Cultural resilience. In the Netherlands, ownership is still a strong aspiration, and that aspiration moves markets as much as policy does.

What Educated Entrepreneurs Should Watch For

If you’re an entrepreneur, especially one navigating cash flow, staff housing allowances, or real estate investments, this market trajectory matters. Not because you’re expected to speculate, but because you need to:

• Understand how housing costs shape salary expectations.
• Anticipate pressure on rental markets.
• Forecast location-based wage tension in your talent pool.
• Adjust your equity-versus-liquidity balance.

A rising housing market is not just a real estate story. It’s a cost-of-talent story. A stability story. A strategy story.

Final Thought: This Isn’t a Victory, It’s a Signal

A +9.3% rise is not a trophy. It’s a thermometer. It tells us the body is heating up again, after a long fever and a sudden chill.

Let’s not celebrate. Let’s interpret.

Let’s not assume it will last. Let’s ask what forces, visible and invisible, are pushing it.

Because in GRC, in entrepreneurship, and in life:

The trend is never the truth. But the behavior behind the trend? That’s where the risk, and the wisdom, lies.