The Morning After the Storm

If inflation were a guest at our breakfast table, June 2025 served us lukewarm coffee, not cold enough to call it deflation, not hot enough to scald us like 2022 did. A 3.1% annual rise in consumer prices, down from 3.3% in May, may feel like a stable plateau. But entrepreneurs should know better: stability is never the story. Stability is a signpost. The question is, what direction are we really heading?

Let’s not pretend the numbers speak for themselves. They rarely do. Numbers are symptoms. The diagnosis lives in what they reveal and what they obscure.

Mapping the Curve: From Shockwaves to Shallow Swells

Let’s rewind. From early 2021 to late 2022, inflation galloped across the Dutch and European landscapes like a spooked horse, peaking at 14.5% in September 2022. That wasn’t economics; that was trauma. The CPI wasn’t a curve, it was a cliff.

Now, in June 2025, we’re hovering just above 3%. Respectable, many say. Healthy, even. But like a patient recovering from a heart attack, normal blood pressure doesn’t mean full recovery. It just means the panic has passed.

Inflation has decelerated, yes, but the price levels haven’t reversed. Your euro today still buys less butter, less bread, less trust.

What’s Really Inside That 3.1%?

Let’s unpack the crate:

• Housing, water, and energy added +1.23 percentage points. That’s unchanged from May. Your fixed costs are still not fixed, they're stubborn.
• Food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed +0.52, a slight uptick. Groceries remain a soft pressure on working households and hospitality budgets.
• Hospitality and recreation nudged upward too, small indicators that people are traveling, spending, and seeking normalcy, albeit at rising costs.
• Alcohol and tobacco? From a sharp +0.55 impact in May to just +0.17 in June. Why? Because the excise tax spike that hit in April finally ran its course through the shelves. The price shock has been metabolized. The system digested the spike—at least for now.

So, inflation slowed not because things became cheaper, but because the initial shocks faded. That’s very different from saying we’re entering a period of easing.

The Paradox of Flight

Here’s a curious detail: international flights were only 11.1% cheaper in June year-on-year, compared to 20.3% cheaper in May. That means prices rose, relatively speaking. Not because planes cost more to fuel overnight, but because last year’s base price was artificially low.

We’re not experiencing real growth in purchasing power. We’re just comparing this year’s squeeze to last year’s discount.

Eurozone vs. Netherlands: Divergence Beneath the Surface

While Eurozone inflation crept up from 1.9% to 2.0%, the Netherlands clocked in at 2.8% (HICP). That’s a significant divergence. Why?

• Energy prices fell in the Eurozone.
• In the Netherlands? They rose.
• Food, beverages, and tobacco? Higher Dutch increases than the European average.

This is a red flag for Dutch SMEs. While your European peers may feel some relief, your local input costs are still grinding upward.

And that means one thing: your margins are under siege even as the headline inflation number seems to behave.

The Behavioral Truth Behind the Index

Let’s stop pretending that CPI is a moral compass. It’s a statistical mirror. And mirrors can lie, especially when they average the lived experiences of a millionaire and a single parent.

So what’s the behavioral truth?

1. Consumers aren’t confident. They’re cautious. Spending is selective, even when travel and hospitality tick up.
2. Businesses are still absorbing shocks, especially in logistics, energy, and compliance. Inflation may be lower, but costs aren’t “normal.”
3. Micro-enterprises are the most vulnerable. They don’t have pricing power. When rent, fuel, or insurance premiums rise, even marginally, they feel the pinch like a vice.

Inflation is not an economic abstraction. It's a governance test. And we are all being graded, month by month.

What Entrepreneurs Should Ask—Now

1. Are my cost structures adaptable, or just brittle? If you’re still operating on pre-2020 assumptions, you’re flying with an outdated map.
2. Am I tracking relative inflation? Don’t just look at the CPI. Look at your sector-specific pressure points. Are your inputs rising faster than your pricing capacity?
3. Do I have a GRC framework to detect friction points early? Governance isn’t about box-ticking. It’s about foresight. And foresight means you catch the water before it breaches the dam.

Don’t Fall for the “Good Enough” Illusion

June’s 3.1% inflation might seem benign after the chaos of recent years. But beware: the system is not healed, it is fatigued. Fatigue breeds complacency. Complacency breeds distortion.

As entrepreneurs, we must read these numbers not as facts, but as symptoms. Behind the charts are choices: political, behavioral, ethical. And the entrepreneurs who survive this era will be those who build systems that learn faster than the economy breaks them.

Clarity is the new capital.

Read the index, but live the context.