Q: Are we back in a housing bubble like before?
"Not exactly. Prices are rising again, up 8.6% in July compared to last year, but this isn’t the wild 20% jumps we saw in 2021–2022. Back then it was frenzy, now it’s more of a steady climb. It feels calmer, but don’t mistake that for safety: housing remains expensive, and even small increases put extra pressure on families, employees, and entrepreneurs."
Paolo Maria Pavan
In July 2025, the price of existing homes in the Netherlands was 8.6% higher than a year earlier. Compared to June, the increase was 0.7%. The average transaction price? €486,041.
Clickbait would stop here: “Housing Market Booms Again!” But numbers without meaning are like invoices without context, they seduce, they don’t guide. Let’s pause. Let’s ask: what’s the why behind the numbers?
The Dance of Peaks and Valleys
Look at the last four years:
- 2021–2022: double-digit growth, peaking at 20%. Frenzy.
- 2023: collapse into the negative, down to -5.8%. Panic.
- 2024–2025: steady rebound, again crossing +10%, now softening toward 8.6%.
This is not just real estate volatility. It is a mirror of human behavior: excess confidence, sudden fear, then slow recovery as memory fades.
Entrepreneurs often forget they are not immune. Your company is a smaller version of this graph. Exuberant growth, then sudden shocks, then recovery, never in a straight line.
Why This Matters for Micro and Small Entrepreneurs
Let’s cut through the polite language of CBS reports. Rising house prices mean:
- Financing tension, staff and founders alike face higher mortgage costs. A €486,000 home is not a luxury; it is the new baseline.
- Talent retention pressure, young employees look at these numbers and realize they may never buy. Frustration enters the workplace.
- Collateral distortion, banks link company credit to personal collateral. Rising home prices may inflate borrowing capacity, but beware: this is a fragile cushion, not a structural guarantee.
- Behavioral bias, when people “feel richer” because their home rises in value, they take greater risks. Entrepreneurs included.
The Illusion of “Average”
CBS reports the average transaction price. But “average” is a dangerous word. It hides inequality.
- A micro entrepreneur in Groningen does not breathe the same market as a consultant in Amsterdam Zuid.
- A family bakery renting its shop sees zero benefit from rising house prices, yet still pays higher wages to staff struggling with housing costs.
The “average” is a national comfort blanket. Real risk lives in the gaps, between regions, between income groups, between owners and renters.
Lessons for Entrepreneurs
So, what should the small entrepreneur in the Netherlands take from this?
- Budget with volatility in mind. If your business plan assumes stability, you’re building on sand.
- Separate personal and business exposure. Don’t let rising home equity seduce you into over-leveraging your company.
- Watch the human factor. Rising house prices aren’t just economic data, they’re cultural triggers. Staff morale, hiring expectations, salary negotiations: all are shaped by this hidden index.
- Think long-term. Prices today are 13.5% higher than the peak of July 2022. Peaks do not last forever. Build your governance as if tomorrow could contract again.
The Bigger Truth
Every line on the CBS chart is not just economics. It is psychology, governance, and the daily struggle of Dutch entrepreneurs.
House prices tell us one thing clearly: stability is an illusion. And for micro and small businesses, the real challenge is not to predict the next +8.6% or -5.8%. It is to design companies that survive both.
That is the true art of entrepreneurship: to read the economy not as a casino, but as a school of resilience.
DATA SOURCE:
https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2025/34/koopwoningen-in-juli-bijna-9-procent-duurder-dan-jaar-eerder
Co-Creator of Xtroverso | Head of Global GRC @ ZENTRIQ™
Paolo Maria Pavan builds systems that balance rules with freedom, clarity with transformation. In his third life, he writes and speaks openly about markets, governance, and risk, not as a trader chasing price, but as a reader of patterns, behaviors, and distortions. A serial entrepreneur shaped by failure and reinvention, he sees governance as a living force for trust and progress, and refuses to avoid the hard conversations that make it real.
