June 2025 brought us a headline that looks good at first sight: investments in tangible fixed assets were 8.3 percent higher than a year earlier, according to CBS. A figure that makes us breathe a little, especially after the turbulence of the past two years. Ships, aircraft, machinery (including defense), and infrastructure were the stars of this surge.
But before we celebrate, let’s pause. Numbers without context are like maps without legends. They point somewhere, but not necessarily where you think you’re going.
The Clickbait Number: +8.3%
On paper, June looks like a recovery month. But look at the timeline:
- 2024 June was -9.7%.
- 2025 June is +8.3%.
If you fall into the trap of short-term comparison, you see “growth.” But when the base is already depressed, an 8.3% climb is not the same as a boom. It’s like jumping from the basement to the ground floor and calling it a rise to the penthouse.
Who Is Investing?
The sectors driving the increase, ships, aircraft, defense machinery, infrastructure, are not the playground of the average Dutch SME. These are state-driven programs, multinationals, and large-scale capital projects.
For the micro and small entrepreneur, this growth is almost an illusion. It does not mean that cafés, creative studios, small logistics firms, or local manufacturers are suddenly experiencing easier financing or better margins to buy new equipment. On the contrary, the CBS Investment Radar for July remains unfavorable: consumers a little less negative, but manufacturers worried about their order books.
The paradox: the big numbers climb, but the small entrepreneur still feels the ground shaking.
Reading Between the Lines
Here’s what these numbers really tell us:
-
Macro resilience is not micro security.
State-level and multinational projects can lift the statistics while leaving the small entrepreneur untouched. -
Volatility is the new constant.
Just look at the rollercoaster since 2022, double-digit growth in some months, double-digit declines in others. Predictability has been replaced by turbulence. -
The radar matters more than the spike.
Investment “conditions” remain unfavorable. This is the iceberg under the waterline. If order books deteriorate, SMEs are the first to feel it, often with delayed payments, shrinking liquidity, and frozen expansion plans.
What It Means for Dutch Micro and Small Entrepreneurs
If you run a small company in the Netherlands, these figures should not tempt you into thinking “the market is back.” Instead, they are a reminder:
- Don’t measure your health by national averages. Measure it by your cash flow, your contracts, your client’s solvency.
- Stay liquid, not over-leveraged. In an unfavorable radar, those who survive are those who keep flexibility over debt.
- Look for micro-investments. While the state buys ships, you invest in a better CRM, a cybersecurity layer, or energy efficiency. Your scale is different, but your resilience depends on those choices.
- Expect the gap. The distance between macro headlines and your micro reality will remain wide. Learn to navigate between the two without frustration.
Conclusion: The “Good But…” Signal
Yes, June 2025 shows +8.3%. Good. But…
Good, because investment activity is not dead.
But, because the beneficiaries are not you, the small entrepreneur navigating clients, invoices, and daily uncertainty.
The art is not to dismiss the big numbers, but to read them with clarity: as signals of where power and capital move, not as a mirror of your shop floor.
And for you, the Dutch micro or small entrepreneur, the message is simple: the radar still says turbulence. Steer accordingly.
Co-Creator of Xtroverso | Head of Global GRC @ ZENTRIQ™
Paolo Maria Pavan builds systems that balance rules with freedom, clarity with transformation. In his third life, he writes and speaks openly about markets, governance, and risk, not as a trader chasing price, but as a reader of patterns, behaviors, and distortions. A serial entrepreneur shaped by failure and reinvention, he sees governance as a living force for trust and progress, and refuses to avoid the hard conversations that make it real.
