Let me be clear from the start: house prices rising again is not news. It’s ritual. What matters now is not what has gone up, but why and why now.

In May 2025, Dutch owner-occupied homes were on average 9.7% more expensive than one year ago. That’s on top of a 0.6% month-on-month increase from April. Let’s pause here.

After a brief post-COVID deflation hiccup in 2023, the housing market has snapped back like a rubber band. This May, average prices didn’t just catch up with the 2022 peak, they passed it. We’re now 11.7% above the previous high of July 2022.

But wait: if the economy is so “fragile,” why are people buying? And more importantly: who’s really buying?

Not a Bubble. A Mirror.

The spike in house prices isn’t irrational. It’s reflective.

It reflects a population that is terrified of liquidity and doesn’t trust savings to stay valuable. It reflects a system where wages don’t climb, but home equity does. And it reflects a cultural truth: in the Netherlands, home ownership is not a necessity, it’s a survival strategy.

You don't buy a house to live better. You buy it to not be left behind.

That’s what makes these numbers dangerous.

When housing becomes a hedge against systemic distrust, the market stops serving families and starts serving fear. This isn’t about greedy investors or spoiled millennials. It’s about a system that pushes people to lock capital into bricks because everything else looks like sand.

The Comeback Was Engineered

The data shows that the price slump bottomed out in mid-2023. Prices had been falling consistently since mid-2022, driven by rising interest rates and buyer paralysis. But by June 2023, the line turned upward and it hasn’t looked back.

What changed?

Three things:

1. Interest Rate Strategy: The ECB may not have slashed rates dramatically, but markets have priced in stability. That was enough.
2. Policy Paralysis: There is no structural supply reform. No zoning flexibility. No real public investment in affordable housing. The vacuum became a signal.
3. Behavioral Inertia: After a year of “waiting,” buyers gave up on waiting for prices to drop. Sellers didn’t lower their expectations. So the standoff broke and upward pressure resumed.

The May 2025 Snapshot

Let’s decode the three most telling data points from this latest CBS/Kadaster release:

• +9.7% YoY price index rise: This isn’t just recovery; it’s rebound beyond fundamentals.
• +11.5% more transactions YoY: Volume is rising with price. That’s a classic sign of optimism, or desperation.
• €471,875 average sale price: But beware, this isn’t quality-adjusted. It hides distortions in size, location, and buyer demographics.

And remember: these are existing homes. New builds are missing from this story, not because they’re unimportant, but because they’ve nearly vanished from the Dutch middle-class radar.

What This Means for Risk Leaders

If you’re a CEO, policymaker, or compliance officer: ignore this data at your peril. Housing isn’t a “personal finance” topic. It’s a macroeconomic nerve and the tremors are cultural, behavioral, and strategic.

The housing price resurgence tells us:

• Inflation expectations are structural, not temporary.
• Middle-class asset strategies are defensive, not aspirational.
• Trust in institutional problem-solving is low—people don’t wait for policy; they flee toward what feels safer.

And the paradox? Every upward tick reinforces the game. You either get in, or you’re priced out later.

The Real Risk

The real risk isn’t a housing bubble. It’s what this market says about the absence of alternatives.

In a well-governed economy, housing is one of many ways to grow. In a distorted one, it becomes the only way. That’s not just unhealthy, it’s unsustainable.

So before anyone celebrates the “recovery” of house prices, ask: are we celebrating trust in the future, or just fear of everything else?

Because the difference is everything.