The Dinner Table Barometer
Picture yourself at a Dutch dinner table in May 2025. The mood? Measured. You pass the potatoes, but the conversation circles—quietly—around rising prices, future plans, and that vague unease that seems to hum beneath the surface. It’s not drama, not despair, just a sense that something fundamental is stuck. This isn’t about numbers—it’s about a shared atmosphere. And that’s exactly what “consumer confidence” measures.
But why should you care about a number—“minus 37”—reported by CBS, especially if you’re not an economist?
Because this number is not abstract. It’s the invisible thermostat of daily life. When it drops, we all feel the chill—even if we can’t quite name it.
The Journey from Hope to Hesitation
Let’s rewind. Back in June 2021, consumer confidence hovered around -3. Not great, but not alarming. Fast forward through the pandemic years, inflation shocks, and global tremors, and by October 2022 we hit -59—the coldest reading ever. Imagine an entire country collectively doubting tomorrow.
Since then, a slow thaw—some warmth returned in 2023. But last autumn, the recovery stalled, and here we are: -37. That’s not just “bad.” It’s a generation below what most of us call “normal.”
Here’s the twist: The 20-year average is -10. In the past, we believed in rebounds, in cycles. Now, the floor seems lower, the bounce weaker. This is not about mood swings; it’s about structural doubt.
The Anatomy of Doubt
Consumer confidence is built from five questions. They sound simple: How’s the economy? Will things get better? How do you feel about big purchases? But together, they form a psychological X-ray. If every Dutch household were optimistic, we’d see +100. If all were gloomy, -100. Right now, we are firmly in the negative—across the board.
- Economic climate? -61.
- Willingness to buy? -21.
This isn’t just hesitation—it’s hesitation with history. We remember the shocks, the disappointments, and the promises that didn’t land. Even those who don’t follow the news feel it when they reconsider that new appliance or delay a holiday.
Why Does This Matter?
Because consumer confidence doesn’t just measure wallets—it measures trust. Trust in the future. Trust in the system. Trust in ourselves.
When people hesitate to buy, invest, or plan, the effects ripple out—businesses pause, jobs hang in limbo, and policymakers lose the most important ingredient in any system: belief.
This isn’t to scare you. It’s to empower you with understanding. Every number is a story of real lives adjusting, adapting, making sense of uncertainty. And when we understand the story, we can change the ending.
What Do We Do With This Story?
If you lead a business, a team, or even just your household, the question isn’t “When will confidence recover?” The real question is, “How do I build trust where I am—right now?”
- Start by listening. The numbers only confirm what your team, clients, and partners are already feeling.
- Resist the temptation to “wait it out.” This is not just a dip. It’s a call to rethink, reconnect, and rebuild credibility.
- Teach those around you why confidence matters. When we understand the mechanism, we stop being afraid of the machine.
In uncertain times, clarity is the rarest commodity. The most powerful leaders are those who make the complex comprehensible—who offer not false comfort, but real explanation and direction.
The Value of Knowing “Why”
Consumer confidence is not a number to watch passively. It’s a temperature reading for our collective spirit. If it’s cold, don’t blame the weather—start building the fire.
We are not bystanders. Each of us can add a degree of warmth—by being clearer, fairer, and more trustworthy in our decisions and relationships.
This is not a statistic. This is the story of us. And stories, unlike cycles, can be changed—one decision, one conversation, one act of trust at a time
Co-Founder of Xtroverso | Head of Global GRC
Paolo Maria Pavan is the structural mind behind Xtroverso, blending compliance acumen with entrepreneurial foresight. He observes markets not as a trader, but as a reader of patterns—tracking behaviors, risks, and distortions to guide ethical transformation. His work challenges conventions and reframes governance as a force for clarity, trust, and evolution.
