When the Cycle Speaks, Listen Carefully

July 2025 didn't scream. It sighed.

For anyone watching the Business Cycle Tracer from Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the story isn't in the numbers themselves, but in their trajectory. Twelve of the thirteen indicators are now moving below their long-term trend. Not catastrophically. Not dramatically. But consistently. And consistency, in economics, is often more dangerous than crisis—it lulls leaders into passive optimism.

Let’s decode this moment for what it is: not a crash, but a quiet erosion.

Since August 2022, the Tracer has been whispering warnings. From a comfortable high of +0.90 in mid-2022, we’ve slid to -0.82 in July 2025. That’s not a blip. That’s gravity. And entrepreneurs, especially those in micro and small enterprises, need to stop reading these indicators like journalists and start treating them like physicians: symptoms matter less than the trend of the fever.

The Confidence Illusion: Feeling vs Function

Now, let’s talk sentiment. Because the Dutch economy, like any body, has moods.

• Consumer confidence in July was slightly less negative (-32) than in June (-36). A breath of air in a still room.
• Producer confidence remained stuck at -4.9, almost unchanged. Still under water, still heavy.

Pause here.

It’s tempting to interpret these as a hopeful sign. “At least we’re not getting worse,” one might say. But when both consumers and producers remain historically pessimistic, we’re not in a waiting room. We’re in a prolonged fog. Vision is limited. Speed is dangerous. Assumptions are fatal.

If the heart of an economy is trust, then July shows we are operating with low-grade anemia. Not enough to collapse. Just enough to keep us tired.

Behind the Indicators: A Contradiction Worth Noticing

Here’s where the story gets interesting, because the body doesn’t always behave the way the mind thinks it should.

Growing:

• Household consumption: +1.1% (May 2025 vs. May 2024)
• Goods exports: +0.5%
• Industrial production: +0.8%
• GDP (Q2 2025): +0.1%
• Existing house prices: +9.3% (!)

Shrinking:

• Investments in tangible fixed assets: -4.0%
• Total hours worked: -0.3%
• Vacancies: down by 7,000
• Turnover from employment agencies: -1.5%

Let’s pause again.

This is the contradiction phase of a cycle. Some limbs are growing, others weakening. It’s not yet a crisis, but it's not equilibrium either. Households spend while businesses hold back. Production ticks up while employment signals tightening. It’s a split personality, the economy is running with one strong leg and one that’s beginning to limp.

What This Means for Entrepreneurs (Especially the Small Ones)

If you run a business in the Netherlands, here’s the unvarnished truth:

1. The macro indicators do not reflect your street. The Tracer is a helicopter view. You live on the ground. Don’t assume your clients, regions, or partners are feeling the same pulse. Check your ecosystem.
2. Watch investment behavior. The 4% drop in tangible asset investments signals that businesses are getting more cautious. When vans, trucks, and buildings get postponed, it’s not a cost issue, it’s a confidence issue.
3. Don’t be fooled by GDP alone. Yes, it rose by 0.1%. But that’s largely due to government spending and fixed investment. Neither is a healthy sign of organic private growth.
4. Use the contradiction to your advantage. If you see your competitors slowing down or sitting still, move differently, not faster. Adjust positioning, reduce exposure, but don’t default to paralysis.
5. Align decisions with behavioural trends, not just data. Data tells you what has happened. Culture, hiring signals, and cash behavior show what people believe will happen next. The shrinking hours, falling vacancies, and flat producer confidence? Those are fear’s fingerprints.

My Advice: It’s Time for "Structured Boldness"

We're not in a recession. We're in a hesitation economy, where the price of action rises slowly, but the cost of inaction compounds silently.

In this phase, leaders need three qualities:

• Lucidity: not optimism, not pessimism, but clarity. Say the truth. Especially to yourself.
• Elasticity: reduce what is rigid, not what is essential. Cut fat, not muscle.
• Discipline: define a rhythm of control, weekly reports, monthly cash forecasts, quarterly scenario planning. Don’t delegate awareness.

Closing Reflection:  

The Dutch economy is not collapsing, it’s questioning itself. And every entrepreneur, especially the micro or small ones, must now choose whether to operate on inherited assumptions or on a renewed logic of trust, structure, and foresight.

The Business Cycle Tracer does not predict your future. You do, by how you act between now and the next quarter.