Exports Up, Germany Down: Reading Between the Lines

Statistics Netherlands tells us that in June, the volume of Dutch goods exports, adjusted for working days, was up 1.8% compared to June 2024. Machinery, transport equipment, food, and luxury goods led the rise. Imports grew even faster, 4.9% year-on-year, with minerals, food, machinery, and luxury items on top.

The headline is simple: exports are up. But if you’ve been in business long enough, you know that’s the appetizer. The main course is why, and more importantly, what it means for you, especially if you run a micro or small company in the Netherlands dealing in machinery, high-end goods, or export markets.

The Numbers in Context

First, perspective.

If you look at the export history since 2021, June’s 1.8% growth is barely a ripple compared to the 8–9% highs of the post-COVID rebound. And after the deep dip from mid-2023 into early 2024, when monthly exports were down as much as 8.3%, we’re not sprinting; we’re limping forward.

A positive number after a long run of negatives feels good, but it’s like finding a €50 note in a year you’ve lost thousands. It doesn’t mean the tide has turned, it means the water has stopped rising for now.

The Machinery & Luxury Story

For small and micro exporters in the Netherlands, especially in machinery or luxury goods, these figures are not just statistics, they’re market signals.

1. Machinery
   Demand is often driven by industrial investment cycles. If foreign markets buy more Dutch machinery, it signals optimism, or urgency, in their production sectors. But if Germany (our biggest trading partner) is cutting industrial production, ask yourself: is this bump just a late delivery from earlier orders?
2. Luxury Goods
   Luxury behaves differently. Even in downturns, certain markets keep buying, often as a hedge against inflation or currency volatility. If your niche is high-end, tailor-made, or artisan, you might still grow even when industrial clients freeze budgets.
3. Food & Consumables
   Less volatile, but margins are tight. Export growth here often reflects contracts signed months ago, not a sudden shift in demand.

Germany’s Weak Pulse

Here’s the friction:

The CBS Export Radar for August says conditions worsened, mainly because German industrial production fell sharply year-on-year.

Germany isn’t just a customer, it’s a hub. A slowdown there doesn’t just cut direct orders; it can choke supply chains, delay payments, and shift pricing power. For a Dutch SME relying on German partners:

• Expect longer sales cycles, clients will need more convincing to invest.
• Prepare for more aggressive price negotiations, and be ready with value-based arguments, not discounts.
• Watch for chain reactions, a German slowdown often ripples through Belgium, France, and even Southern Europe.

What This Means for the Small Exporter

For micro and small entrepreneurs, the lesson is not “exports are up” but:

1. Resilience beats reaction
   If your order book is full because of one or two large buyers, you’re exposed. Diversify markets before the dip reaches you.
2. Value over volume
   Competing on price when Germany sneezes is suicide. Focus on the why behind your offer: quality, service, customization, cultural fit.
3. Data is your shield
   Track not just your own sales but sector indices, commodity prices, and your buyers’ financial health. In machinery and luxury, lag effects are real, today’s numbers might reflect last quarter’s optimism.
4. Read the radar, not the headlines
   The CBS radar isn’t perfect, but it’s a mood barometer. When it tilts negative, don’t panic, plan.

Final Reflection

If you run a small Dutch exporter, you’re playing a long game in a short-attention-span world. The June figures give you breathing space, not a victory lap. Germany’s distress is a caution flag, especially for machinery and industrial suppliers, but it’s also a chance to sharpen your edge, deepen client relationships, and look beyond the obvious markets.

The real question isn’t whether exports are up.

It’s whether your export strategy is built for when they go down again.

AUTHOR : Paolo Maria Pavan

Co-Creator of Xtroverso | Head of Global GRC @ ZENTRIQ™

Paolo Maria Pavan builds systems that balance rules with freedom, clarity with transformation. In his third life, he writes and speaks openly about markets, governance, and risk, not as a trader chasing price, but as a reader of patterns, behaviors, and distortions. A serial entrepreneur shaped by failure and reinvention, he sees governance as a living force for trust and progress, and refuses to avoid the hard conversations that make it real.