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Why “Growth” Is the New Lie We Tell Ourselves in the Netherlands This Quarter

Retail turnover rose, but volume shrank, so who’s pocketing the difference? Spoiler: it’s not your ESG score, your customers, or your conscience.
July 3, 2025 by
Why “Growth” Is the New Lie We Tell Ourselves in the Netherlands This Quarter
Paolo Maria Pavan
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Why I Care About Retail Turnover (And You Should Too)

Let’s be clear: I’m not in love with numbers. I’m in love with what they betray.

Retail turnover in May 2025 grew by 2.2% compared to May 2024. If you’re a CEO, a compliance officer, a policy designer, or simply an adult paying attention, you might feel compelled to breathe a sigh of relief. “Look! Growth!” But I invite you to sit with that breath just a second longer. Exhale curiosity, not comfort.

Turnover is up. Volume is down. That’s not growth. That’s inflationary illusion meeting consumer fatigue. And behind that polite CBS bulletin lies a reality check for anyone who still believes performance indicators are self-explanatory.

Let’s unpack the data and the distortion.

Numbers Never Lie, But They Often Whisper What We Don’t Want to Hear

  • Retail turnover +2.2%
  • Sales volume -0.4%

Translated from economic Esperanto: we sold less stuff but for more money.

This isn’t a story of appetite. It’s a story of price. And of survival.

We are entering a consumer environment where buying less is no longer a choice, it’s a strategy. This is not austerity by design; it’s austerity by exhaustion. If your ESG narrative still rests on “growth = good,” you’re reading from a book no one believes in anymore. Including your clients.

Sector Breakdown: Where the Surface Shines, the Structure Cracks

Let’s zoom in.

Food Sector
  • Turnover +1.7%
  • Volume -3.2%

Food inflation still bites. When sales volume drops but cash flow increases, you're witnessing forced prioritization. People are still shopping, because they have to, not because they’re confident. Supermarkets rose slightly, specialty stores more. The upper middle class still indulges. For now.

Non-Food
  • Turnover +2.5%
  • Volume +0.9%

Here the façade is fancier. Recreational goods, furniture, drugstores, even DIY sectors show modest growth. But the cracks appear in:

  • Clothing: -1.9%
  • Shoes & leather goods: -4.3%
  • Consumer electronics: -10%

Ten. Percent. Down.

What does that tell us?

It tells us that the average citizen isn’t replacing the washing machine this year. Or upgrading their phone. Or buying another pair of sneakers for the child they’re struggling to keep in extracurriculars. This isn’t just a retail trend. It’s a social x-ray.

The Digital Mirage

Online turnover? +4.7%.

Let’s not get drunk on that number.

Web shops did well (+8.7%), multichannel retailers less so (-0.7%). Translation: digital natives are pulling ahead; traditional players aren’t catching up fast enough.

And before someone cheers for “digitization” as the messiah: remember this, growth in online sales without growth in trust, data protection, delivery standards, or fair taxation is not ESG compliance. It’s digitized exploitation.

ZENTRIQ™ doesn’t clap for speed. We audit for substance.

ESG Isn’t a Buzzword. It’s a Mirror.

This retail snapshot is not about commerce. It’s about conscience.

Where are our policies when people shrink their baskets but inflate their anxiety?

Where is our governance when consumer data is optimized but consumer dignity is neglected?

Where is our compliance when supply chain ethics are sacrificed for a quarterly spike in online sales?

Let me be clear: GRC is not a framework to protect systems from people. It’s a framework to protect people from systems, especially when the numbers look nice and the reality doesn’t.

The ZENTRIQ™ Takeaway: What to Do Next

If you lead, advise, or fund a business, here’s what you should be asking this month:

  1. Are our retail metrics aligned with reality, or are they just good news stories in disguise?
  2. Is our growth driven by trust, or just by higher pricing strategies?
  3. Have we built resilience into our ESG commitments, or are we patching holes every quarter?
  4. How are our clients, especially the smallest ones, coping with the shift in consumer behavior? Are we helping or hiding?

ZENTRIQ™ isn’t here to celebrate a 2.2% turnover rise. We’re here to ask what that number hides and who’s paying the price behind it.

Final Thought

Retail is not about stuff. It’s about stories.

And this month, the story is clear: people are still buying, but with caution, resentment, and diminishing trust.

Don’t fall in love with the data. Fall in love with the why.

Because only then can you change what’s coming.

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