We live in an age obsessed with percentages. The Dutch industry in June produced 0.2 percent less than the same month last year, says CBS.
A fraction of a percentage, easy to ignore.
But every fraction has a story, and in industry, that story is written in supply chains, worker shifts, machine hours, and confidence (or the lack of it).
The Anatomy of a Small Decline
More than half of the industrial sectors produced less in June than a year earlier. That tells us something deeper than the average figure does. When a majority of the engine’s cylinders are slowing down, you don’t dismiss it just because the dashboard needle hasn’t plunged.
Of the eight largest sectors:
-
Repair & installation of machines – +28.5%
A spectacular rise. This isn’t just “maintenance.” It signals that factories are investing in keeping old assets alive rather than buying new ones, often a sign of cautious budgets. -
Rubber & plastics – +7.1%
Resilient, perhaps due to sustained demand in packaging and automotive components. -
Food – +2.7%
A steady sector. People eat, recession or not. -
Machines – +0.8%
Slight growth, but more “keeping pace” than “surging ahead.” -
Electrical & electronic equipment – +0.5%
Growth so slim it could vanish next month with a single order canceled. -
Metal products – -6.3%
A sharper decline, often a proxy for construction and infrastructure mood. -
Means of transport – -7.3%
Reflecting complex global supply constraints and uncertain demand. -
Chemicals – -8%
The largest fall, and in an industry often sensitive to both global commodity prices and regulatory costs.
The Cycle We Don’t Like to Admit
Seasonally adjusted, production fell 0.1% from May to June. This isn’t dramatic, but it’s part of a longer narrative.
- From May 2020’s low point, industry climbed steadily until May 2022.
- Since then, the trend has tilted downward, not catastrophic, but persistent.
It’s the kind of slow erosion that policymakers and CEOs find hardest to react to. A sharp crisis triggers action. A slow fade tempts you to “wait and see,” often until it’s too late.
Confidence, A Fragile Commodity
Producer confidence in July stayed almost as negative as in June. The optimism about future activity is being undercut by worries about inventories and order books.
And remember, Germany, our largest sales market, is facing a 4.7% drop in June production year-on-year and a 2.8% fall compared to May. When your main client has the flu, your own numbers will sniffle next.
What This Means for the Entrepreneur
If you own or lead a micro or small enterprise in the Netherlands, these are not abstract numbers:
- Margins may tighten as input costs and competition shift.
- Longer sales cycles could become the norm if your buyers are in metal, transport, or chemicals.
- Maintenance markets may boom, if you service industrial assets, this is your time.
- Export caution is warranted if your clients depend heavily on Germany.
My Take, Reading Between the Decimals
The lesson here is not to obsess over the minus 0.2%. The real signal is the split: some sectors sprinting ahead, others losing oxygen.
Healthy industries don’t move in unison, but when more than half are declining, the resilience of the few growing sectors is a red flag as much as a reassurance.
The entrepreneur’s edge is not to guess the next percentage, but to read the posture of the market:
- Are your clients repairing instead of replacing?
- Are inventories swelling in your supply chain?
- Is your growth coming from stable orders or one-off contracts?
A good leader sees the why behind the numbers, and acts before the next report confirms the trend.
Co-Creator of Xtroverso | Head of Global GRC @ Zentriq
Paolo Maria Pavan is the structural mind behind Xtroverso, blending compliance acumen with entrepreneurial foresight. He observes markets not as a trader, but as a reader of patterns, tracking behaviors, risks, and distortions to guide ethical transformation. His work challenges conventions and reframes governance as a force for clarity, trust, and evolution.
