A Whisper Louder Than Despair

The Netherlands blinked in June. Not quite hope, just a blink. Consumer confidence, as measured by CBS, nudged itself from -37 in May to -36 in June. A single point. A rounding error in any other context. But here, we must ask: Why does stagnation feel like movement?

Let’s be clear: a score of -36 is still a psychological trench. It’s far below the 20-year average of -10. It’s a place of hesitation, of emotional contraction, of silent revolt against the future. But in a society trained to see any upward tick as progress, a one-point climb risks becoming a sedative. And that is dangerous.

Economic Climate: Less Negative ≠ Positive

The so-called “economic climate” indicator rose slightly from -61 to -58. That’s like saying the water leaking into the boat is now lukewarm instead of cold. You’re still sinking.

Why does this matter?

Because perception drives behavior more than numbers do. If consumers believe the future will suck a little less than the past, they may not celebrate, but they might stop screaming. That’s what we’re witnessing: not optimism, but emotional fatigue. And fatigue can be misread as acceptance. That misreading leads policymakers to assume “resilience.” They confuse tolerance with trust.

The Broken Spine of Consumption

Now let’s talk about the real crux: willingness to buy, still locked at -21. The Dutch consumer remains uninterested in spending, especially on large purchases. The idea of buying a car, a new kitchen, or even a holiday feels, viscerally, out of sync with the times. And for good reason.

We are not dealing with a liquidity issue. We are dealing with a confidence paralysis. People have money, but they don’t have narrative. And in economics, when you kill the story, you kill the motion.

This static willingness to buy reflects a structural discomfort: consumers don’t trust that their future income, cost of living, or tax stability will remain coherent enough to justify long-term commitments. It’s not just about inflation or interest rates. It’s about institutional predictability. And frankly, the Netherlands hasn’t exactly been a poster child for that lately.

The Long Arc of Distrust

Let’s zoom out.

• The confidence high-water mark? +36 in January 2000, the era of dot-com dreams and global illusions.
• The rock bottom? -59 in September and October 2022, a reckoning born of energy crises, political fatigue, and inflation psychosis.

Since then, we’ve clawed our way up—but not climbed. Between January 2023 and June 2025, consumer confidence has hovered between -49 and -21, as if Dutch society has accepted grey skies as the new climate. This is not recovery. This is chronic malaise with a PR campaign.

The GRC Perspective: What CEOs Must Learn From This

If you’re a CEO, entrepreneur, or board advisor reading this: do not misread this +1 uptick as signal. It is noise. In the GRC world, we call this a “structural divergence”, when macro indicators suggest easing tension, but behavioral metrics (like purchase hesitancy) remain frozen.

This means that consumer-facing businesses, retail, real estate, hospitality, are operating in a time of false dawn. The system wants to call it a “turnaround,” but your customers are still voting with their wallets, and their vote is: not yet.

So, calibrate your risk. Don’t plan expansions based on headlines. Read the underlying anxiety. Respect it.

Final Thought: The Real Index Is Silence

Trust is not built in decimals. Confidence doesn’t return because a graph curves upward. It returns when citizens believe that what they build today will not be betrayed tomorrow.

And that, dear reader, is not in the CBS report. It’s in our culture, our politics, and our ability to offer clarity instead of spin.

Until then, a score of -36 isn’t recovery. It’s a society learning to whisper instead of shout.