The Clock Shows Red, Yet We Whisper in Beige

Let’s not sugarcoat it: 12 of 13 indicators in the CBS Business Cycle Clock fell below their long-term trend in June 2025. That's not a “slight cooling” or a “moderate downturn.” That’s a structural fatigue, a macroeconomic shrug that no one dares to name.

The unweighted cycle score hit -0.81, the lowest point in four years. We’ve been sliding uninterruptedly since July 2022, when we reached a post-COVID peak of +0.86. That’s 24 months of silent contraction, dressed in technocratic politeness. No headlines. No panic. No plan.

But here's the catch: while the graph bleeds, the language remains diplomatic. We call it a "more negative picture.” As if the economy were a watercolor painting.

The Delusion of “Stability”: GDP Up, But So Is Bankruptcy

Let’s dissect the contradiction.

GDP rose 0.4% in Q1 2025. Aha! Cue the optimism. But wait:

• Investments shrank 2.3% in April
• Industrial production fell 1.0% from March to April
• Bankruptcies rose 10% in May
• Temporary employment turnover dropped 1.5% year-on-year

So yes, consumption and exports propped up the GDP, temporarily, artificially. But the foundation is eroding. When fixed investments collapse while GDP climbs, it’s not growth. It’s deferral. We’re living on consumption and inertia. Like a sinking ship with the music still playing.

Confidence? In What?

Consumer confidence sits at -36, and producer confidence at -5.0. Let that sink in.

This isn’t about sentiment. It’s about trust.

• Trust in the future
• Trust in the system
• Trust that rules will reward effort

We’ve created an economy where people work more hours (3.7 billion in Q1) but produce less optimism. Where the unemployed stay flat at 385,000 (3.8%), but vacancies are falling. We are slowly boiling the frog.

House Prices Up 9.7% And That’s Not Good News

In a healthy cycle, rising house prices signal demand. In this one, it signals fear of cash. People are parking wealth in bricks because they don’t trust the Euro, the state, or future wages. When real estate becomes a refuge, not an investment, we’ve passed the tipping point.

The Structural Message Beneath the Data

Let me be blunt: this is not a cyclical dip. This is a systemic flattening. A culture of shallow resilience, where:

• Temporary workers are the economic shock absorbers
• SMEs hold their breath every quarter
• Politicians whisper “soft landing” while indicators scream “erosion”

The Business Cycle Clock is not wrong but it is deafeningly quiet in its design. It tells you what, but never why. It shows the bleeding, but wraps it in pastel colors. And as long as we keep accepting averages as truths, we will govern illusions, not realities.

A Different Way Forward: Structural Clarity, Not Sentimental Cycles

What we need is not another sentiment index. We need:

• Governance that maps divergence, not generality
• Risk models that include cultural erosion and compliance fatigue
• Public discourse that speaks the language of accountability, not euphemism

The clock is ticking, not towards collapse, but towards a new kind of fragility: slow, quiet, and dangerously normalised.

And that, dear reader, is the true risk behind the numbers.