Inflation Eased, But So Did Vigilance

Consumer prices in the Netherlands rose 3.3% in May 2025 compared to May 2024, down from 4.1% in April. At first glance, this seems like a relief. But in the world of governance and risk, we know that a drop in pressure does not mean the system is cooling, it may just mean a valve was opened elsewhere.

If you think this is “good news,” I invite you to look again. Not with fear, but with structured clarity.

Why the Drop? One-Off Airfare Fluctuations

The primary reason for this dip? Airline tickets.

In April, international flights were 20.8% more expensive than the year before. In May, they became 20.3% cheaper. A swing of over 40 percentage points in one month. That’s not a correction. That’s noise.

This tells us less about consumer resilience or supply stability, and more about algorithmic pricing volatility, holiday season mismatch, and opportunistic behavior in the travel sector. May 2025 had fewer vacation days than May 2024, and demand responded. That’s not deflation. It’s temporary turbulence.

Let’s be clear: without this anomaly, inflation would likely have stayed above 4%. That’s structurally relevant. What we’re seeing is not a new era of affordability, it’s a weather front.

The Price of Living: Still Climbing

Break down the numbers:

• Housing, water, and energy added +1.23% to the annual CPI in May.
• Food and non-alcoholic drinks: +0.49%.
• Miscellaneous goods and services: +0.44%.
• Alcohol and tobacco: +0.55%.

This isn’t moderation. This is consolidated inflation, baked into the foundation of everyday life. Once embedded in housing, utilities, and groceries, these costs don’t simply reverse. They compound.

So while the headlines whisper "cooling inflation," your wallet still knows it’s burning.

The Risk: Misreading Seasonality as Structure

Month-over-month, consumer prices fell by 0.5% from April to May. Sounds promising, right? Not so fast.

This drop is seasonally biased. Prices spike during holidays (airfare, bungalows, leisure) and ease when demand dips. May’s calendar quirks distorted the baseline, giving false comfort to anyone mistaking short-term retreat for long-term stability.

Here’s the mistake many risk models make: they normalize volatility as health. They strip context and pretend that “down” means “fixed.” But risk is never linear. It hides behind these temporary drops like a coiled spring.

The Structural Trajectory Since 2021

From 1.6% in January 2021, to a staggering 14.5% in September 2022, then slowly declining through 2023… this inflation cycle isn’t just about energy shocks or war-driven scarcity. It’s about delayed policy reflexes, fragmented supply chains, and behavioral fatigue.

We’re in a phase of inflation fatigue, not in pricing, but in perception. And when trust in data erodes, compliance becomes performative, not protective.

GRC Perspective: Inflation as a Governance Failure

Inflation is not just an economic metric. It is a litmus test for systemic coherence.

When it spikes, it tells you:

• Monetary policy lagged.
• Market actors speculated unchecked.
• Data was delayed or misinterpreted.
• The average citizen paid the price—quietly.

If your GRC strategy doesn’t track inflation beyond the macro headlines, you’re not doing risk governance. You’re managing a spreadsheet, not a system.

The drop from 4.1% to 3.3% is not a policy win. It’s a misreading of turbulence as control. And every GRC professional should treat it as a warning.

What Needs Watching Next?

• June-August flight prices: Volatility will return. Monitor if May’s drop was a blip or a trend.
• Recreation and hospitality sectors: Sharp drop in contribution from +0.50 to +0.19 indicates unsustainable pricing games.
• Household staples: Their inflation contributions are creeping, quiet but cumulative.
• Inflation expectations: Once belief in stability fades, behavior adjusts faster than policy can respond.

Final Word: Price is a Behavior, Not a Number

Inflation is not just data. It’s a mirror of our collective choices, our fears, our habits, our delays.

So let’s not applaud May’s inflation dip. Let’s interrogate it.

Let’s ask: What does it hide? What does it delay? And what does it teach us about the systems we’ve built, and the truths we choose to ignore?

Because in governance, price movements are never just economic. They are ethical signals.