❝ Growth Without Confidence Is a Castle Built on Fog ❞
Business services in the Netherlands posted a modest +3% turnover increase in Q1 2025 compared to the same quarter last year. That’s the headline. But it’s the sixteenth time in a row we’ve seen “growth”, and yet, the system is exhausted. Not from decline, but from pretending this type of growth still means what it used to.
Let’s be clear: this is not expansion. It’s inertia, priced higher.
The Long Descent from Momentum to Maintenance
Since the second half of 2022, turnover growth in Dutch business services has been steadily losing oxygen:
- 2022 Q2: +20.3%
- 2023 Q2: +9.1%
- 2024 Q2: +6.4%
- 2025 Q1: +3.0%
This isn’t “stabilisation.” It’s an identity crisis. One quarter at a time.
We’re still moving, but less because we’re going somewhere, and more because we’re afraid to stop.
Winners, Losers, and the Great Price Mirage
Here’s how Q1 2025 played out in sector terms:
| Sector | Turnover Δ YoY | Price Δ YoY |
|---|---|---|
Travel Agencies | +8.8% | +1.8% |
Legal Services | +8.5% | +4.6% |
IT Services | +5.8% | +3.3% |
Engineering Firms | +7.2% | +3.0% |
Cleaning Companies | +7.2% | +8.0% (!) |
Temporary Employment | –1.5% | +4.5% |
Advertising Industry | –2.6% | +0.9% |
So yes—turnover rose. But prices rose faster in almost every sector.
Growth without volume is not growth. It’s inflated stasis.
Business Confidence: Below Zero, Again
After a fleeting moment of positivity in Q1 (confidence index: +3.2), Q2 began with business confidence back in the red at –4.1. That means the average Dutch service provider expects less business, even after 16 straight quarters of “more” revenue.
It’s like climbing a staircase, smiling, while secretly wondering if the next step is still attached.
Confidence is no longer tied to turnover. It's tied to fatigue.
Deeper Signals: What the Data Refuses to Say Aloud
- The rise in legal, accounting, and cleaning turnover is not innovation. It’s compliance, correction, and survival.
- Advertising and employment agencies shrinking means trust and ambition are shrinking. These are the frontlines of investment in talent and reach.
- Price inflation in low-growth sectors is cannibalistic. We're charging more, because we’re delivering less.
What Should Entrepreneurs Read From This?
If you're an English-speaking entrepreneur in the Netherlands, here’s the playbook:
- Don’t confuse price growth with market health. Look at volume and confidence, not just billing lines.
- If cleaning firms are leading growth, your ecosystem is repairing, not building.
- Use business confidence indexes as early warning systems. They're the pulse before the heart attack.
- Beware the comfort trap of service inflation. Are you growing, or are you just surviving louder?
Final Word: Time to Rethink Growth
Growth is no longer a given. It’s a narrative. And like all narratives, it needs truth, or it becomes a trap.
The Dutch business service sector isn’t collapsing. But it is becoming a clever illusion of progress, increasingly hollow, increasingly priced, and increasingly less sure of itself.
In 2025, the smartest leaders won’t chase turnover. They’ll audit its meaning.
In 2025, the smartest leaders won’t chase turnover. They’ll audit its meaning.
Co-Founder of Xtroverso | Head of Global GRC
Paolo Maria Pavan è la mente strutturale dietro Xtroverso, unendo la competenza nel compliance alla visione strategica dell’imprenditore. Osserva i mercati non come un trader, ma come un lettore di schemi—tracciando comportamenti, rischi e distorsioni per guidare una trasformazione etica. Il suo lavoro sfida le convenzioni e ridefinisce la governance come forza di chiarezza, fiducia ed evoluzione.
