❝ -0.5% Isn’t Just a Number. It’s a Signal. ❞
In April 2025, the calendar-adjusted production of Dutch industry slipped by 0.5% compared to April 2024, according to CBS. A minor figure at first glance. But in a post-COVID economy allergic to clarity and addicted to volatility, half a percent is no rounding error. It’s a whisper from the system, subtle, but not benign.
Behind the decimal lies a pattern: more than half of the eight largest industrial sectors shrank. The signal is not just quantitative. It’s structural.
This isn't about one bad month. This is the slow drip of long-term fatigue in disguise.
From Chemical Burnout to Food Resilience
Let’s strip it down by sector. Here's the year-on-year change in April 2025:
| Sector | Change |
|---|---|
Chemistry | -9.2% |
Transport Equipment | -6.4% |
Machines | -3.4% |
Metal Products | -2.9% |
Electrical/Electronic Equipment | -0.1% |
Plastic & Rubber | +5.1% |
Machine Repair & Installation | +6.1% |
Food Industry | +7.6% |
When chemicals, long the Dutch crown jewel, bleed at nearly double-digit contraction, and food leads with quiet strength, something fundamental is shifting: we’re producing less complexity, and more necessity. Less transformation, more preservation.
That’s not resilience. That’s retreat.
March to April: The Silent Descent
Looking not year-over-year, but month-over-month, we see a 1.0% drop in seasonally and calendar-adjusted industrial output from March to April. The graph is clear: since the post-COVID production peak in May 2022, the Dutch industrial engine has lost altitude.
Production index (2021 = 100):
- May 2022: 108.4
- April 2025: 103.0
That's not fluctuation. That’s erosion.
Confidence Collapsing: Dutch Mindset vs. German Mirror
May didn’t just see less production, it saw less belief. Manufacturers’ confidence slid further, especially on the question of expected output. While Germany, our industrial soulmate and biggest customer, is showing some tentative optimism, their own production in April was down 2.5% year-on-year and 1.8% month-on-month.
We’re not alone. But that doesn’t make it better.
What’s Really Happening?
This is not just a cyclical downturn. It’s an identity crisis in production logic. Here’s what we’re seeing beneath the surface:
- Decoupling from complexity: Machinery, transport, and advanced sectors are the first to bleed. Complexity is expensive. Risky. Less rewarded in uncertain markets.
- Reversion to basics: Food, plastic, and repair services are climbing. These are “safe bets.” But safety is not strategy.
- Confidence ≠ Capacity: Even when capacity is intact, if confidence drops, so does output. This is a psychological recession wrapped in an industrial one.
What Must Be Done? (And What Must Be Understood)
For policymakers, CEOs, and GRC professionals, the message is brutally clear:
- Watch trendlines, not headlines. -0.5% is a headline. A two-year downward trajectory is the truth.
- Stop celebrating food and repair surges as signs of strength. They’re symptoms of fallback logic. Functional, not visionary.
- Demand data integrity and context in every report. Is a 1.4% gain in March followed by a 1.0% drop in April really “recovery”? Or just volatility without direction?
- Don’t mimic Germany blindly. Their optimism is political, not economic. Their production also shrank.
Final Thought: Structure Is Destiny
When more than half your sectors are shrinking, and the most complex ones are leading the decline, you don’t need a forecast. You need a structural intervention. Compliance without courage becomes a straitjacket. GRC without production insight becomes theatre.
This is not a call to panic. This is a call to structural realism.
We must relearn how to read numbers, not just by their value, but by their valence. And we must stop waiting for confidence to return like spring.