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Why “Only 3.1% Inflation” Is a Lie You’re Telling Yourself

Because when prices whisper and you still feel the pressure, it’s not inflation, it’s denial with a decimal point.
July 2, 2025 by
Why “Only 3.1% Inflation” Is a Lie You’re Telling Yourself
Paolo Maria Pavan
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June 2025. Inflation: 3.1%.

Sounds harmless, doesn’t it?

A small dip from May’s 3.3%. According to the rapid estimate from CBS, consumer prices stayed flat compared to the previous month. The kind of data point that earns a shrug in the boardroom. Stability, right?

Wrong.

This isn’t stability. It’s managed perception.

And in governance, perception is a risk category in itself.

Let me tell you a story, not of percentages, but of patterns.

The Boiling Point That Learns to Whisper

Imagine a frog in a pot of water. You know the fable: if you raise the temperature slowly, it won’t jump out. Now imagine we replaced the thermometer with a committee and gave the frog quarterly updates on its wellbeing.

That’s inflation today.

Measured, revised, digested, and ignored.

Yes, 3.1% is a far cry from the 14.5% peak in September 2022. But that’s exactly why it’s dangerous: it looks civilized. It smells like “under control.” And so, leaders, especially in smaller enterprises, are told to adapt, absorb, and carry on.

But here’s what I see, as Head of GRC within the ZENTRIQ™ framework:

A society that’s adapting to dysfunction as if it were weather.

Inflation isn't just about price tags. It’s about trust erosion. When costs rise unpredictably and explanations become statistical rituals, entrepreneurs lose more than margin. They lose foresight. They stop planning, and start coping.

What the 3.1% Doesn’t Tell You

Let’s decode this number like a GRC strategist would.

  • The index is based on incomplete data.
  • It’s seasonally distorted (airfares and holiday surcharges skew perception).
  • It doesn’t tell you what’s behind the “average”, what went up, what went down, and who got squeezed in between.

And more importantly:

Inflation data is always late to the party.

Your balance sheet already felt it. Your clients already noticed it.

Your employees already adjusted their expectations.

If you're a business leader, you're not reacting to June inflation in July.

You're reacting to the consequences of May’s disbelief.

Why Governance Can't Be Passive Anymore

At ZENTRIQ™, we train our lens not on the price, but on the pattern of reaction. Who absorbs the shock? Who delays payment? Who increases prices quietly, through shadow categories, like service fees, delivery terms, or minimum quantities?

Inflation doesn’t just distort cost.

It distorts relationships.

And once that distortion embeds itself, compliance starts to crack, gently, politely, legally. Until a quarter later, when auditors and risk officers realize the business model has quietly shifted.

The governance lesson is this:

Don’t wait for the CPI to validate your discomfort.

If you feel tension in your pricing, your supply chain, your employee morale, you’re already in the middle of the story.

So, What Now?

This is not a call to panic.

It’s a call to intelligent distrust.

If you're a CEO, controller, or auditor, here’s what to do right now:

  1. Treat 3.1% not as a result, but as a starting point.
    Ask: Which category moved most? What are my clients not telling me? What price hikes are we postponing?
  2. Map the unspoken adjustments.
    Did your suppliers absorb a cost? Did your team reduce service quality to stay lean? That’s where your real inflation lives.
  3. Use a framework, not instinct.
    ZENTRIQ™ exists because business environments are no longer linear. You need structure to spot anomalies before they become disasters.

Read Beyond the Number

The official CPI for June will be published on July 8. More precise. More complete. More… irrelevant?

Because if your governance model is waiting on press releases to detect pressure, then your system is already a step behind.

Let’s lead differently.

Not with fear. Not with slogans.

But with the courage to say:

“This number doesn’t explain my reality. But I’ll explain it.”

And that, my fellow entrepreneurs, is where governance begins.

AUTHOR : Paolo Maria Pavan

Co-Creator of Xtroverso | Head of Global GRC @ Zentriq

Paolo Maria Pavan is the structural mind behind Xtroverso, blending compliance acumen with entrepreneurial foresight. He observes markets not as a trader, but as a reader of patterns, tracking behaviors, risks, and distortions to guide ethical transformation. His work challenges conventions and reframes governance as a force for clarity, trust, and evolution.

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