When the Ice Is Thin, Stability Is a Trap
May 2025.
The headline is quiet, almost polite:
“Only 352 companies went bankrupt. That’s just a 2% rise.”
Ah, the soothing music of modest percentages. But you don’t spot an avalanche by looking at how many snowflakes fell this morning. You sense it when the ice beneath your boots cracks, imperceptibly, then all at once.
This article isn’t about numbers.
It’s about what we’re refusing to see beneath them.
Bankruptcy Is a Symptom. The Disease Starts Sooner.
The Dutch CBS now focuses on the “bankruptcy rate”: how many companies die per 100,000. It’s cleaner than raw counts, easier to compare across sectors.
But let me ask you something:
If you want to understand the health of your body, would you measure how many toes fall off each month?
Bankruptcy is the final event.
It’s the collapse after the last warning light was ignored.
Behind every court-registered failure lies months, or years, of:
- Eroded trust,
- Disoriented leadership,
- Delayed decisions,
- Structural neglect.
Numbers show the funerals. They never show the intensive care unit.
The Sector Lie: Why We Shouldn’t “Blame Hospitality”
In May, the hospitality industry topped the charts: 34 bankruptcies per 100,000 companies. Alarming? Maybe. But let’s not moralize a sector that runs on thin margins and honest labor.
What we’re really seeing is this:
Where structure is fragile, the crisis finds its easiest prey.
It’s not about bars, restaurants, or hotels.
It’s about undercapitalized models, overdue risk analysis, and business cultures addicted to hope instead of structure.
Sector comparisons, while technically sound, let us off the hook.
They let CEOs say, “At least we’re not in hospitality.”
They let policy-makers delay reform with, “Let’s wait and see.”
In truth, the sickness is widespread. Only the symptoms vary.
Post-COVID: The Delayed Explosion
Let’s go back to August 2021: the bankruptcy rate hit an all-time low 3.4 per 100,000 companies. Why?
Because the Netherlands, like much of Europe, put the economy on life support:
- State-backed loans,
- Deferred taxes,
- Emergency subsidies.
We didn’t solve fragility. We just put it on mute.
Now, in 2025, the volume is back. The failures are surfacing. Slowly, quietly.
Like cracks appearing in an old dam, not terrifying enough to scream, but too consistent to ignore.
What the Rate Won’t Show You
The bankruptcy rate is blind to:
- Zombie firms: technically alive, practically dead.
- Cognitive dissonance: leaders who mistake charisma for solvency.
- Compliance fatigue: processes treated like rituals, not responsibilities.
- Digital risk: invisible, silent, and almost always underestimated.
This is why we built ZENTRIQ™: not to report on failure, but to predict dysfunction.
Not to create panic, but to demand clarity.
The Real Questions for Real Leaders
If you're a CEO, stop asking:
"Are we heading for bankruptcy?"
Start asking:
- Do I really understand the structural weaknesses of my company?
- Do my people speak the truth, or do they just perform optimism?
- What’s the gap between my balance sheet and my behavior?
If you're a policy-maker, stop waiting for trendlines.
Start designing scaffolds, not safety nets.
If you're a GRC officer, stop being a statistician.
Be a translator. Interpret silence. Anticipate friction.
Why “Only” Is the Most Dangerous Word in Risk
There were only 352 bankruptcies.
The rate rose only 2%.
Hospitality is the only sector suffering.
“Only” is a lullaby we sing when we don’t want to wake up. But governance isn’t about being comfortable, it’s about being awake when others sleepwalk.
The real crisis isn’t who went bankrupt.
It’s who’s structurally exposed, and still pretending they’re not.
We’re not here to be cynical. We’re here to serve trust, before it collapses into regret.
Co-Founder of Xtroverso | Head of Global GRC
Paolo Maria Pavan is the structural mind behind Xtroverso, blending compliance acumen with entrepreneurial foresight. He observes markets not as a trader, but as a reader of patterns—tracking behaviors, risks, and distortions to guide ethical transformation. His work challenges conventions and reframes governance as a force for clarity, trust, and evolution.
