Each month, the same ritual plays out. Statistics Netherlands releases retail data. Analysts nod. News outlets report that sales are growing. The illusion is served.
In April 2025, retail turnover rose by 4.2 percent compared to April 2024. Volume increased by 1.7 percent. Non-food turnover grew by 5.2 percent. Food by 2.5 percent. Online turnover by 2.4 percent.
But here is the truth. These numbers do not reflect strength. They reflect drift.
The Turnover Illusion
Turnover measures what people spend. It does not reveal what they value. It does not reveal what they avoid. In April, food turnover rose. Yet the volume of goods sold actually declined by 2.4 percent. People spent more but received less. This is not growth. This is compression.
Retailers are not thriving. They are absorbing shocks. Consumers are not expanding. They are retreating inside tighter margins. The system keeps moving. But the direction is down.
The Non-Food Mirage
Non-food appears strong on paper. Clothing stores. DIY outlets. Furniture. All reported gains. But growth in percentage terms means nothing without context. In March 2025, the sector was already cooling. April simply looks better because the baseline was weak.
More telling is the collapse of consumer electronics. Turnover fell by 6.5 percent. This is not a niche signal. It is a structural one. Electronics are indicators of confidence. When households delay replacing tools they use every day, they are not saving. They are holding their breath.
Online Sales and the Quiet Fragmentation
Online turnover rose. Slightly. Web-only shops did well. Multichannelers did not. The surface story is that e-commerce is stable. The deeper truth is that loyalty is eroding.
Consumers are selecting channels based on price, not trust. Convenience, not connection. Online sales of clothing and electronics fell. These are not just market categories. They are cultural indicators. And they are sending a warning.
Specialty Food and the Escape Reflex
Luxury food stores reported a 7.7 percent increase in turnover. This sounds like prosperity. It is not. It is escapism. People are buying fewer necessities and more indulgent items in smaller quantities.
In times of stress, individuals seek micro-pleasures. A bottle of wine. A handmade cheese. These are not signs of abundance. They are signs of psychological compensation.
The Missing Context
CBS adjusts figures for shopping days. But they do not correct for the deeper distortion. April 2021 showed retail growth of nearly 10 percent. April 2022 maintained that rhythm. April 2023 slowed to 4.5 percent. April 2024 dropped further to 2 percent.
Now, April 2025 reports a return to 4.2 percent. But that rise is not acceleration. It is a plateau. The system is not regaining altitude. It is hovering.
What the Market is Not Buying
Look closely at what is not moving. Electronics. Basic fashion. Mid-tier furniture. These are not luxury products. They are functional goods. When they stop selling, it means households are postponing needs.
This behavior reflects caution. It reflects concern. It reveals that behind the “plus” signs in official data lies a population under financial pressure.
At Xtroverso, we confront this every day. Turnover is stable. But liquidity is fragile. Confidence is thin. Governance is not about interpreting numbers at face value. It is about reading the behaviors they conceal.
Final Reflection
There is no structural resilience in these retail figures. There is adjustment. There is inertia. There is response to cost, not creation of value.
What we need is not applause for superficial increases. What we need is clarity. We must ask harder questions. What are we building. What are we avoiding. What are we pretending not to see.