Let me tell you a story.

It’s about a man who hears the same alarm clock go off every morning, but tells himself, “It’s probably just a one-time thing.” Until the eighth morning comes… and the house is on fire.

Now, let’s talk about the 1.1% drop in wholesale turnover that just hit the news.

Most entrepreneurs—especially those running small and micro enterprises will glance at this CBS number, frown for a second, and then go back to work. I understand. I’ve done it too. But let’s pause. Because this is not just one bad quarter. It’s the eighth. In a row.

Eight quarters of decline in your supply chain is not “just how the market goes.” It’s a signal. And if you’re building a business in the Netherlands right now, especially one that depends on trade, logistics, stock, suppliers, or even digital resellers, this signal is for you.

What’s really going on?

The CBS reports show this:

• Overall wholesale turnover dropped 1.1% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024.
• That makes two straight years of negative turnover in the sector.
• Some segments are still growing (like food and ICT), but key sectors like oil, agriculture, and raw materials are shrinking, by 6.8% to 9.4%.

If your business touches these sector, even indirectly, you may already feel this, quietly:

A longer payment term from a supplier.

A client suddenly “reviewing their budgets.”

That once-reliable partner now "reorganizing" every two months.

These aren’t coincidences. They’re aftershocks of a broader tremor.

So what’s the real risk for small businesses?

Let’s not get lost in economic jargon. Let’s ask the questions that matter:

• What happens to a small business when the middleman loses margin?
  You pay more for goods. You wait longer for delivery. You absorb more risk.
• What happens when suppliers start protecting their cash flow?
  You get stricter terms, less flexibility, and reduced trust—unless you’ve built relationships that go deeper than transactions.
• What happens when demand drops and big players panic?
  They discount hard, compete unfairly, and shrink your margins before you can react.

These aren’t abstract risks. They’re the real texture of your next few quarters.

But there’s another story here…

Even in this shrinking market, some sectors are still growing:

• Food wholesale is up 4.9%
• Industrial machinery is up 1.6%
• ICT equipment by 1.1%

What does this tell us? It tells us that demand hasn’t disappeared, it has shifted.

If your business depends on wholesale, ask yourself:

• Are you tied to a dying distribution model?
• Are your suppliers evolving, or just surviving?
• Could you re-position your offer to serve sectors that are still growing?

Small businesses are agile by nature. That’s your edge. But agility is useless if you don’t lift your head and look at the terrain. Right now, the terrain is shifting.

Fewer bankruptcies ≠ Less risk

Interestingly, the number of bankruptcies went down slightly this quarter. But don’t let that soothe you. That’s not because companies are doing better. It’s because many are in “survival mode”, cutting back, selling assets, laying off, delaying. It’s like watching someone stay afloat by holding their breath longer and longer. Eventually, they come up for air, or they don’t.

This means that your partners and clients might not collapse, but they might default.

They might delay payments. They might change terms last-minute. They might ghost you.

What do you do now to protect your cash flow from that risk?

Confidence is dropping too and that matters more than you think

Business confidence in the wholesale sector is now at -12.2. That’s not a mood score. It’s a warning light.

When confidence drops:

• Buyers hesitate.
• Deals stretch out.
• People stop innovating and start hoarding.

If you run a small business, this affects you directly, even if you feel stable. Fear upstream always becomes friction downstream.

And here’s the irony: while the market shrinks, labour shortage remains the top problem

Almost 29% of wholesalers say they can’t find the staff they need.

Another 26% say there isn’t enough demand.

So businesses are stuck between two walls:

• Not enough people to grow
• Not enough demand to justify hiring

Sound familiar?

This is where small businesses suffer most. You don’t have an HR department to buffer the blow. If one person leaves, the whole system shakes. If one big client hesitates, your pipeline freezes.

So what can you do? Here's what I recommend, not as a consultant, but as someone building alongside you.

Let’s think together: 5 questions every small entrepreneur should ask today

1. Do I know exactly how exposed I am to the sectors in decline?
   If 30% of your business is linked to agriculture or raw materials, are you already preparing your plan B?
2. Have I re-checked the financial health of my key partners?
   When was the last time you asked your supplier if they were okay? Trust is not eternal—it’s structural.
3. Am I compensating for weaker margins with stronger relationships?
   In tight markets, loyalty buys you more than price does. Are you being visible, reliable, and fair?
4. Am I training my team to spot signals, not just follow tasks?
   Your frontline staff might see things you don’t. Teach them what to watch for.
5. Is my business model still matching where the market is going?
   If ICT and food logistics are growing, is there a way, direct or indirect, to pivot some of your offer?

The slowdown is real. But so is the opportunity.

When big players panic, small ones can pivot.

When others freeze, you can breathe.

When the story looks like it’s closing, maybe it’s just your next chapter opening.

But only if you read the signals, not the headlines.

“Don’t wait for the storm to pass. Learn to navigate in the dark.”

That’s what entrepreneurship is: not predicting the future, but preparing for it while still believing in your own voice.