The Trend Behind the Numbers

The latest data from CBS and the Dutch Land Registry leaves no room for ambiguity: the transaction prices of existing owner-occupied homes in nearly all Dutch municipalities increased in Q1 2025. The most staggering jump was in Bunnik, at +19.8%, followed by Waddinxveen (+18.7%) and Gouda (+18%).

Nationally, the average was +10.9%  a solid rebound after the post-2022 cooldown. For many observers, this is framed as good news. Real estate is growing again. Municipal coffers are swelling thanks to property-related levies. Investors, especially institutional landlords and banks, are smiling.

But let's interrogate this optimism.

Who Profits When the Index Climbs?

Under current Dutch fiscal architecture, the value of a house directly influences the WOZ-value ,  the government-assessed property value. This valuation is recalibrated annually and used as the foundation for multiple municipal taxes: property tax (OZB), sewage charges, and water board levies. When the WOZ increases, so do these taxes,  even if your income hasn't.

For municipalities, this is a quiet bonanza. Without having to explicitly raise tax rates, revenues increase simply because valuations do. Politically painless, economically efficient, at least on paper. The local government budget breathes easier, investors in housing see their assets inflate, and banks register higher collateral values for existing mortgages.

On their balance sheets, this is recorded as a gain in the loan-to-value ratio: a home worth more creates safer loans. The problem? The risk isn’t vanishing,  it’s just being transferred.

The Homeowner Paradox

For the average Dutch citizen, however, this surge is not a gift, it’s a tax multiplier disguised as growth. Let’s be clear: the householder doesn't receive a windfall unless they sell. But in the meantime, their cost of ownership rises through the backdoor, in taxes, insurance premiums, and service costs. And if you want to buy? Your entry point has been raised again, even as real wages remain largely stagnant.

Where is the value in this system for the person living in the house?

It is a system that celebrates wealth on spreadsheets, while ignoring household liquidity. A system that rewards paper appreciation while penalizing real-life cost of living.

The Banking Mirage

From a bank’s point of view, higher property values increase perceived solvency across the mortgage portfolio. In theory, this buffers against defaults. In reality, it builds a fragile equilibrium: more credit is extended based on inflated values, while household confidence and consumption decline. We are witnessing a paradox, balance sheets look healthier, but the arteries of the economy (consumer spending and SME resilience) are tightening.

The question is not “how much are homes worth?” but “how sustainable is this value in a system where consumer confidence and disposable income are eroding?”

A System of Assumptions Under Stress

We’re told to trust the system: that rising values mean economic health. But what kind of health?

• Municipalities profit automatically through WOZ-indexed taxation.
• Banks gain paper strength through revalued mortgage collateral.
• Investors see their assets appreciate without lifting a finger.

Yet meanwhile:

• Homeowners pay more for services tied to their property, without earning more.
• Entrepreneurs face weaker consumer demand and rising wage expectations.
• SMEs, the real economic bloodstream, become the de facto tax buffer.

This is the anatomy of a quietly extractive system, one that is not illegal, but is structurally unbalanced. It relies on the myth of perpetual growth to justify burdens placed on those with the least leverage to escape it.

The Real Bloodline: Entrepreneurs Paying Salaries

Entrepreneurs, particularly in micro and small enterprises, are the ones who convert vision into payroll. They are not speculators. They do not profit from index shifts. They face regulatory fatigue, higher operational costs, and tighter credit access. And yet they are treated as just another node in the system, when they are, in fact, its heartbeat.

If confidence is falling, and CBS confirms it is, why do we pretend that price inflation in housing is a healthy sign?

It’s time we stop seeing municipal and financial wins as indicators of citizen wellbeing. We must interrogate the underlying mechanics: who pays, who profits, and who’s asked to believe in a system that indexes taxation to speculative logic.

Reframing the Dialogue

XTROVERSO doesn’t exist to comfort illusions. We exist to interrogate systems and empower decision-makers, especially those with skin in the game. It’s not enough to read numbers. We must read what they cost.