0.5% More… of What, Exactly?

There it is. A modest +0.5% increase in goods exports, year-over-year, corrected for working days. Neatly delivered by CBS. Machinery, food, and luxury goods, they say. A faint pulse, barely enough to call it growth, but apparently enough to qualify as news.

Now, before we open champagne over spare parts and soft cheese, let me offer a sharper lens: when you see a 0.5% increase after a year of contraction, you're not on a recovery arc, you’re in the eye of the storm. Export volume is moving, yes. But direction and resilience? Not so much.

From Peak to Plateau: The True Shape of the Curve

Scroll back through the years. Remember May 2021? A glorious +20.5%. A statistical sugar rush from the post-COVID rebound. And then? A slow, disenchanted descent. From +12.9% in June 2021… to negative territory by early 2022… to a downright freefall in late 2023.

The curve doesn’t lie. It murmurs a truth economists whisper and politicians ignore: we’re not exporting strength, we’re exporting hope, with better packaging.

Even more concerning? Import volumes rose by the exact same percentage. We’re exporting a sliver more while consuming just as much. In systems thinking, that’s called neutral entropy. It looks like motion, but delivers no meaningful change in state. In other words: sound and fury, signifying stagnation.

The Radar Still Says: Unfavourable

CBS’ Export Radar for June confirms it, conditions remain unchanged and unfavourable. Less pessimism in German industry? Maybe. But the real exchange rate movements dampen any optimism. In simple terms: even when our neighbours smile, our own competitiveness shrinks.

This isn’t a headline. It’s a warning.

And let’s remember: goods exports make up three quarters of all Dutch exports. Services, the intangible lifeblood of a post-industrial economy, are not measured monthly. Which means we’re steering the national debate using a rearview mirror built for the industrial age.

Three Provocations for Decision-Makers

1. Stop romanticizing machinery. Yes, tech exports are valuable. But don’t confuse movement in mechanical goods with momentum in national strategy. Exporting more gadgets doesn’t equate to economic depth.
2. Read Radar, not Results. The CBS radar tracks underlying conditions, not outcomes. If the radar is flat, don’t be seduced by the decimal fluctuations. It’s like praising the patient’s blood pressure while ignoring the tumor.
3. Separate volume from value. A 0.5% increase in tonnage or units means nothing if margins are shrinking or if the goods exported are commoditized. True GRC starts here: tracking what really matters, not what ticks the box.

A Footnote

Rules matter not because they limit us, but because they reveal us. This report, like so many, offers raw data without emotional clarity. It is our task, as ethical readers and strategic thinkers, to interpret the signal beneath the statistics.

Ask not whether exports rose.

Ask whether we are exporting value, vision, and velocity.